Breakfast in (North) America
2010-09-02
MONTREAL - Nothing like waking up to a breakfast of cold cereal and juice together with a dose of hot, muggy end-of-summer weather. It's been in the low 30s Celsius here this week (around 90 F) - and coming from the chilly Pacific Northwest, that's quite a change.
It was my first time back to Montreal in nearly a decade. I used to come here quite frequently when I supported Boeing sales for Air Canada.
This time I was here was to release the 2010 [market outlook for North America](http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1399) along with taking the opportunity to spend the better part of my Thursday morning here with journalists.
I had a lively roundtable session with Montreal-based reporters.
North America is obviously a huge aviation market, comprised of Canada and the United States. One point I made with reporters here in Montreal (and in Calgary) this week is that while Canada makes up a little less than 10% of the [North America forecast](http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/north_america.html) for new airplane deliveries, that's only because it's in comparison with the even larger U.S. market.
Canada taken by itself ranks among the top-20 countries worldwide for airplane demand.
In terms of the regional forecast, the key numbers are these: North American airlines will take delivery of about 7,200 new commercial airplanes between now and 2029 - a [$700 billion](http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/seven-hundred%C2%A0billion/) investment.
Now the interesting thing about this particular region is that the deliveries will be driven largely by replacement demand - and predominantly in the single-aisle segment, as airlines in Canada and the U.S. retire their older, less fuel-efficient airplanes and replace them with new-generation, more fuel-efficient models.
Fully 2/3 of North America commercial airplane deliveries will be for replacement - with the region's fleet growing from 6,590 airplanes today to about 9,000 airplanes by 2029.
Our forecast predicts that nearly 3/4 of the new deliveries in this region over the next 20 years will be single-aisles.
Of course it wouldn't be a media roundtable in Montreal without a lot of questions around another aspect of the single-aisle market - future competition, specifically from the hometown airplane maker, Bombardier.
In response to some pointed questions, basically asking for my views on the CSeries, I mentioned to reporters that Bombardier has entered the detailed design phase of the development process - this is the beginning of the real hard work. I said that ultimately the [CSeries](http://www.montrealgazette.com/CSeries+could+same+turbulence+Dreamliner+Boeing+official+says/3474758/story.html) would be a good airplane, but I'm not sure it will be as good as advertised.
I got a lot of questions as well about *Boeing's* plans in this segment. Will we continue with the incremental improvements on the Next-Generation 737, will we re-engine the airplane or will we do an all-new airplane?
It's something we're looking at closely right now - as is Airbus with the A320 - and there's a lot of speculation about who will make the first move. What I said today just about sums up the challenge: There are advantages to being the first mover. There are advantages to being the second mover. But at the end of the day what you want to be is the *best* mover.
Earlier in the week, as I mentioned, we stopped in Calgary to [meet with media](http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Boeing+predicts+traffic+rebound/3466446/story.html) there. It was actually the first chance I've ever had to spend any time on the ground in Calgary - a booming western Canada city and the home of our good Boeing customer, WestJet.
You see lots of construction cranes around Calgary - a fast-growing market.
It's an interesting mix of cowboys, "the great outdoors" (one of the main freeways into town is called [Deerfoot Trail](http://maps.google.com/maps?expIds=17259,24472,24922,25900,26094&sugexp=ldymls&xhr=t&q=deerfoot+trail+calgary&cp=18&hl=en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=Deerfoot+Trail,+Calgary,+AB,+Canada&gl=us&ei=wSiATKfTJ8T_nAff9Y1q&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=title&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBMQ8gEwAA)) and modern business where skyscrapers are going up so fast you'd never know we'd been through an economic downturn.
Finally, I want to point out, as I did during my visit this week, that we have a long and deep relationship with [Canada](http://www.boeing.ca/Home.do;jsessionid=6A33D33EB77D7D6F5F4CDD5968408FD3). Boeing Commercial Airplanes works with more than 500 suppliers and partners here. Boeing imports Canadian parts and services amounting to more than a billion U.S. dollars a year - more than $625 million of which is associated with Commercial Airplanes.
So, it's been an enjoyable week in Canada, but for now, I'm looking forward to a long holiday weekend - a time to recharge my batteries before resuming a busy travel schedule the rest of the year - and inevitably, a lot of breakfasts *not* in America.












